On Monday Google is expected to announce plans for closing the google.cn site. The date set seems to be April 10.

Google has threatened the Chinese government, saying that it will not accept future censoring of search results at its google.cn site.

The main reason for this change of heart is the recent hacker attacks on Google’s servers.

Business sense

Several commentators have argued that this makes no business sense for Google, and that leaving the Chinese market would undermine their long term prospects for world domination. After all, neither Yahoo! nor Microsoft have announced that they plan to give up on the Chinese search market.

Google must have known that the chances were very slim, indeed, for China giving in to Google’s ultimatum. Google knows that the Chinese embrace of capitalism does not equal an acceptance of democracy. The Chinese Communist Party will not win a democratic election, so it has to do its best to stifle any sign of efficient opposition.

The threat of the cyber revolutions

The Chinese government has learned a lot from recent political upheavals, like the ones in Ukraine and Georgia and the current one in Iran. The Internet can be used to topple governments. Search helps people find alternative sources of information. Facebook, Blogger, twitter and YouTube give the opposition alternative channels for news distribution.

On a long term basis, access to independent information undermines people’s trust in the government and makes people think for themselves. An open debate is the very essence of democracy and the Communists cannot allow that.

The orange and green revolutions have also shown the Chinese government that search and social media can be used by the opposition to organize protests and distribute reports to its local supporters and to people abroad. This leads to international protests that again helps the opposition.

Real time search

The way Google is mixing real time search results into its regular web search results, means that Google can be used to coordinate such upheavals as they take place. A government that is waging a war on its own people, cannot leave such a potent weapon in the hands of “the enemy”.

All of this means that the Chinese government cannot give in to Google’s demands. Google knows that, which means that they must have understood that their threat would ultimately mean the end of google.cn.

Moreover, staying on the Chinese government’s term now, would completely undermine Google’s legitimacy as the “Do no Evil” company. To stay would be a PR disaster of epic proportions.

This does not mean the end of Google China, however. The local office may still be Google’s arm in China. The Chinese may still access some of Google’s international services (even if it is unclear whether the government will allow access to the English language google.com). Google will apparently keep its R&D unit in China and continue to sell their phone.

Long term strategy: Google’s return

Google has shown through its Google Book search project and others that it is able to stick to a long term strategy of Chinese proportions. They may bet on future political changes in China.

They know that capitalism thrives on democracy, and that it is hard to combine the freedom of business with a totalitarian dictatorship.

The Chinese idea of encouraging innovation in business without allowing for innovation in the public sphere is probably unsustainable in the long run. The Chinese government has to spend large amounts of money on higher education in order to turn the country into a high tech superpower. By doing so they also develop a large middle class.

Marx was wrong when he believed it was the working class that would bring revolutions. Most successful revolutions are brought about by the sons and daughters of a well educated and increasingly affluent middle class.

A violent or non-violent revolution of the middle class will bring in new politicians that understands the Internet and its role in democratization. These politicians will also remember the role played by Google, which will give the company a lot of goodwill when the doors are reopened. At the same time Microsoft and Yahoo! will have to live the stigma of having worked for the dictators.