To understand the Google China war we need to understand how the Communist party thinks and acts.
photo credit: QiFei

As we reported earlier this week, Google is no longer willing to censor search results in China.

The announcement is dramatic, to say the least, and we have no reason to believe that Google will not follow up on its threats: i.e. close down its operations in China and the google.cn site if the Chinese government does not allow uncensored result.

It is also pretty obvious that the Chinese Communists are not going to allow this. Google knows that. This again means that Google will leave China. The “talk about talks” is just a formality.

The cyber attack

It has been known for a time that there has been internal disagreement in the Google leadership regarding China. Co-founder Sergey Brin, who had his childhood in Soviet Russia, has been particularly uncomfortable with the idea of giving in to the Communist regime. Still, the dream of conquering a huge Internet market, as well as the argument that it is better with some information than none prevailed until this week.

What changed was the fact that someone launched a co-ordinated attack against the services of Google and other American companies looking — apparently — for business information as well as information on Chinese dissidents and human rights activists in other parts of the world known for supporting the Chinese opposition.

It seems they were two attacks: One where someone hacked into the Google servers directly (although not achieving their goal) and another using spyware exploting a vulnerability in Internet Explorer, tapping information from infected computers, and getting login information by spying on the users for these PCs.

Although this hasn’t been proved, it is reasonable to conclude that the attacks were orchestrated by the Chinese government. Who else would want access to the Gmail accounts of the Chinese opposition?

This told Google that the tactic of placating the Chinese government is not working. Instead of allowing more freedom for its citizens, the regime is so scared of a “democratic revolution” that it is doing anything it can to keep an eye on possible threats.

The dilemma of the Chinese regime

The Chinese regime has learned from history. The fall of the Eastern Block was partly caused by the fact that the citizens of countries like East Germany and Hungary had access to Western TV and radio. This enabled them to see through the lies of their governments’ propaganda. The revolutions of Georgia, Ukraine and (right now) Iran have all been driven by an active use of the Web.

The Chinese government also knows the danger of building up an educated and wealthy middle class. In spite of what Communist doctrine tells you, it is the middle class that normally demands democracy. This means that the Communists need to do two things at once:

(1) Ensure economic growth that will placate the middle class. For this they need to develop a knowledge based economy with a well educated population - i.e. produce a large number of potential enemies of the regime. This is their Catch 22.

(2) To get around this dilemma, the regime tries to control the affluent middle class by censoring information flow. In this way they hope that the middle class will be unwilling or unable to demand political change.

This is why they took the chance of attacking Google’s infrastructure, trying to get access to Gmail accounts.

Attacking the Cloud

That was a huge mistake. By attacking Google’s cloud computers and the accounts of Gmail holders, they were threatening the Google strategy of moving all types of computing onto the Web.

Google’s plan is to beat Microsoft and the other traditional software companies by offering online services that accomplish the same tasks online as traditional software is doing locally today. They hope that in a few years you will replace Windows and Microsoft Office with Google Chrome and Google Docs. But for that to happen, the potential users have to be able to trust Google with their personal information. The fact that the Chinese government has been able to hack into the Gmail accounts of dissidents undermines this trust. If the Reds can do it, others can do it too.

This is what made Google declare war on the Communist regime. They were already under attack, a kind of threat Google cannot live with.

Google’s mistake

Google had made a terrible mistake. They probably believed they could handle China and its regime, in spite of Brin’s misgivings. They were wrong. This is not a regime that will give in to Western ideas of freedom of information and democracy, simply because it cannot afford to do so without losing its grip on power.

The only way to do this kind of business with China is to swallow your pride and do the dirty work of censorship for them. A lot of American and European companies do that. It is business, after all. But Google with it’s “Do no evil!” slogan should know better.

The cyber attacks made Google realize its mistake. Now it has, belatedly, come to its senses. That’s good. Now it is time for companies like Yahoo! to do the same.

Here’s the CNBC coverage of the Chinese attacks:

Here is another report from the Newshour:

Google/China coverage from around the Web:

• Microsoft admits IE fault in Google China hack

  Microsoft suggests users can avoid any problem by using protected mode and the highest security settings. (techradar Jan 15 2010)

• On Rumors of China Attacks Targeting a Google Search Warrant Compliance System

  and About Google Allegedly Already Lifting Censorship (Google Blogoscoped jan 15 2010)

• After Google’s Stand on China, U.S. Treads Lightly

  Peering inside the hacked machine, engineers saw evidence of attacks, not only at Google, but also at at least 33 other companies (NYT Jan 14 2010)

• Follow the Law, China Tells Internet Companies

  China is unlikely to give ground on Google’s demands that its search engine results be unfiltered. (NYT Jan 14 2010)

• After The Hack, Should I Still Trust Google & The Cloud With My Data?

  Danny Sullivan is wondering if the GoogleHack will develop into a major reversal for the growth of cloud computing. (SE Land Jan 14 2010)

• Google China’s Office Becomes a Shrine

  placing flowers and candles by their Google sign outside the building. (SE Roundtable Jan 14 2010)

• So, just how did Google get hacked?

  Security expert Graham Cluley asks whether infected PDFs were to blame (techradar jan 14 2010)

• The China Google rift: is it good for Bing?

  Microsoft and Bing are bound to face the same challenges faced by Google – a fierce resistance to opening up China to the connected world (Liveside.net Jan 13 2010)

• Baidu: The Official Google Blog You Seek Does Not Exist (& Don’t Even Try Looking For It)

  Chinese Baidu puts a lid on the Google/China war (SE Land Jan 13 2010)

• Google’s China Gambit: Day Two Reaction

  Google’s public statements and decision are being applauded, dissected and heavily tweeted within and outside China. (SE Land Jan 13 2010)

• Google’s Tortured History With China

  John Battelle: This is politics at its finest, and it’s a very clear statement to China: We’re done playing the game your way. (Jan 13 2010)

• Google Just Says No To China: Ending Censorship, Due To Gmail Attack

  Google has willingly allowed self-censored its search results since January 27, 2006, on its Google China service (Jan 12 2010)

• Google makes encryption on Gmail the default

  Https becomes the standard setting (techradar Jan 13 2010)

• Does It Matter Why Google Did It? The Real Point Is China’s Appalling Internet Behavior.

  Maybe Google finally went on the offensive against China to take focus away from a significant security breach. (BoomTown Jan 13 2010)

• Google: A new approach to China

  The Official Google Blog on Google’s break with China (Jan 12 2010)

• Google’s Handle on China Flap Freezes the Evil Meter

  Attacks on Google’s cloud are actually attacks on its consumers, because Google hosts its users’ data on thousands of servers in data centers all over the world. (Google Watch Jan 14 2010)

• Google: Keeping your data safe

  The route the attackers used was malicious software used to infect personal computers. Any computer connected to the Internet can fall victim to such attacks. (Google Enterprise Blog Jan 12 2010)

• Google, Citing Attack, Threatens to Exit China

  Google said Tuesday that it would stop cooperating with Chinese Internet censorship and consider shutting down its operations in the country altogether (NYT Jan 12 2010)

• China at Odds With Future in Internet Fight

  But to many of the young, well-educated Chinese who are Google’s loyal users here, the company’s threat to leave is in fact no laughing matter. (NYT Jan 16 2010)

• The White House on the Google/China conflict

  Gibbs: Helene, you heard the President in Shanghai take a question from the Internet about the universal right of a free Internet. He strongly supports that, and we support Google’s action in a decision to no longer censure searches that happen using the

• Google Prompts Soul-Searching in China

  China Digital Times: This highly symbolic move by Google demonstrates the fundamental conflict between the free flow of information and an authoritarian regime (Xiao Qiang Jan 13 2010)

• Researchers identify command servers behind Google attack

  Google said that the intrusion attempt originated from China and was executed with the goal of obtaining information about political dissidents (ars technica Jan 14 2010)

• Yahoo stayed quiet about Chinese cyber-attacks

  US search giant remained silent, unlike Google (techradar Jan 16 2010)

• Google and China: Business Morality or Reality?

  Mike Moran: They look like the model world corporate citizen for standing up to the Chinese. Sure they lost some opportunity there, but the rest of the world thinks they are heroes. (Jan 14 2010)

• The real reason Google wants out of China

  It’s not about human rights, says Oxblood Ruffin (techradar Jan 15 2010)

• Google China cyberattack part of vast espionage campaign, experts say

  Computer attacks on Google that the search giant said originated in China were part of a concerted political and corporate espionage effort that exploited security flaws in e-mail attachments (Washington Post Jan 14 2010)

• A Heated Debate at the Top

  Sergey Brin was the one arguing for Google withdrawing from China (WSJ Jan 14 2010)

• Google’s China Stance: More about Business than Thwarting Evil

  I’m not saying human rights didn’t play into the decision, but this was as much about business. (TechCrunch Jan 12 2010)